Countries that cut spending and boomed: Canada cut federal spending by 10 points of GDP in 1995–2000 and had its strongest growth decade. Sweden cut from 67% to ~49% between 1993 and 2007 — its growth accelerated immediately. Estonia cut massively post-1992 and became one of the fastest-growing economies in Europe. Ireland cut in the late 1980s and entered the Celtic Tiger period. Countries that expanded and stagnated: France, Italy, Belgium, and Japan all expanded welfare states and saw sustained low growth. The directional consistency across very different institutional contexts is what gives the causal story traction.