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How a 1980s economic model gave cover to 40 years of government expansion

The quadratic model emerged in the 1980s from observing that both very small governments (often failed states with poor institutions) and very large governments (communist dictatorships) had slower growth than moderate-sized ones. But this compared functional with dysfunctional states, not different sizes of functional government. The 'optimal zone' framing gave academic cover to politicians who wanted to justify expanding government by claiming they were finding the sweet spot. In practice the quadratic model predicts impossible negative growth rates at high spending levels, revealing it as a mathematical artifact rather than an empirical description of reality.